HomeMy WebLinkAboutReso 92-375 - Approve & Authorize the CM to sign the letter agreement dated 08/11/92 between the COR & Economic Sciences Corp to perform services pertaining to the Calif Energy Commission's Common forecasting methodology proceedings for ER94i
RESOLUTION NO. qZ 3 7.S
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF REDDING
: APPROVING AND AUTHORIZING THE CITY MANAGER TO SIGN THE
LETTER AGREEMENT DATED AUGUST 11, 1992, BETWEEN THE CITY OF
REDDING AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES CORPORATION TO PERFORM
SERVICES PERTAINING TO THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION'S
COMMON FORECASTING METHODOLOGY PROCEEDINGS FOR ER94, IN AN
AMOUNT NOT TO EXCEED $155,000.00.
WHEREAS, at its meeting of June 16, 1992, City Council
authorized the Electric Department to issue a Request for Proposal
for technical services for the California Energy Commission' s Common
Forecasting Methodology Proceedings for ER94; and
WHEREAS, ECONOMIC SCIENCES CORPORATION (ESC) and HENWOOD ENERGY
SERVICES INC. , two of the firms receiving the Request for Proposal,
responded with a joint proposal under a single contract with ESC in
the form of a Letter Agreement dated August 11, 1992, a copy of which
is attached hereto and incorporated herein by reference; and
WHEREAS, the ESC contract meets or exceeds the task parameters
required by the Request for Proposal, including enhancing the City' s
ability to assess the impact of demand-side management programs and
incorporating end-use forecasting capabilities in the demand model,
at a base proposal price of $115 ,000.00 ; and
WHEREAS, the requested contract price of not-to-exceed
$155, 000.00 includes contingencies of $15,000. 00 for Option D1 and
$25,000.00 for Option S1 ( see page 12) in the event the Electric
Department is unable to hire and assimilate a Demand Side Management
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Coordinator and a Resource Planner in time for either or both to
provide the in-house expertise needed for the ER94 filing; and
WHEREAS, funds for the ER94 Project are available in the
Electric Department' s Fiscal Year 93 Budget (Job Order #9719-20) ; and
WHEREAS, it is the Electric Department' s recommendation that
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City Council approve the attached contract in an amount not-to-exceed
$155,000. 00 to cover the base proposal, Option D1, and Option S1; ���
NOW, THEREFORE, IT IS HEREBY RESOLVED by the City Council of the
City of Redding as follows:
1. That the above recitals are true and correct.
2. That City Council hereby approves the attached Letter
Agreement dated August 11, 1992, between the City of Redding and
Economic Sciences Corporation in an amount not to exceed $155,000. 00;
and that said funds be encumbered in the Electric Department' s FY93
budget.
3 . That the City Manager of the City of Redding is hereby
authorized and directed to sign said Letter Agreement on behalf of
the City of Redding; and the City Clerk is hereby authorized and
directed to attest the signature of the City Manager and to impress
the official seal of the City of Redding thereto.
I HEREBY CERTIFY that the foregoing Resolution was introduced
and read at a regular meeting of the City Council of the City of
Redding on the lst day of September 1992, and was duly adopted at
said meeting by the following vote:
AYES: COUNCIL MEMBERS: Arness, Dahl, Kehoe & Moss
NOES: COUNCIL MEMBERS: None
ABSENT: COUNCIL MEMBERS: Anderson
ABSTAIN: COUNCIL MEMBERS: None
C E MOSS, ma§4r
City of Redding
ATTEST:
CONNIE STROHMAYER, C y Clerk
FORM PPROVED:
RANDALL A. HAYS, ity Attorney
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Economic Sciences Corporation
2120 University Avenue Berkeley, CA 94704
(510)841-6869 FAX(510)644-1943
August 11, 1992
Tom Graves
Electric Department
City of Redding
760 Parkview Avenue
Redding, California 96001-3396
Dear Mr. Graves:
This Letter Agreement, when executed by both parties, will authorize Economic Sciences
Corporation (the prime "Contractor") with Henwood Energy Services, Inc. (Subcontractor)
effective , 1992 as an independent contractor, to perform services for the City of
Redding (the "City") in accordance with the following terms and conditions:
1. Services
Contractor agrees to perform the services and scope of work set forth in
Contractor's project proposal entitled "Proposal to Provide Consulting Services in
Support of the City of Redding's Participation in the CEC ER94 Proceedings," dated
August 4, 1992, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit A and incorporated
herein, (the "Services").
2. Rate of Payment for Services
Contractor will perform the Services to the satisfaction of the City, at the hourly billing
rates specified in Exhibit A, Section V -- "Fee Schedules". Total charges under this
contract (Base Proposal) shall not exceed $115,000.
3. Terms of Payment
Charges will be invoiced monthly and paid within 30 days of receipt of each invoice.
4. Independent Contractor
Contractor shall at all times act as an independent contractor with respect to the Services.
Neither Contractor nor Contractor's subcontractor, employees or agents shall be deemed
to be or shall represent themselves to be employees or agents of the City.
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5. Information
All reports and other data prepared, compiled or obtained by Contractor in connection
with the performance of the Services shall be made available upon receipt to the City.
All such materials may be copied, reproduced or used in any manner which the City
deems appropriate. Upon receipt of materials specifically prepared for the City by
Contractor, the City shall be entitled to use any of such materials in any manner which
the City, in its sole discretion, deems appropriate without restriction or accountability.
Materials prepared, compiled or obtained exclusively for the City shall immediately
become the sole property of the City.
6. Confidentiality
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Contractor covenants and agrees to keep confidential any and all information concerning
the plans, operations, or activities of the City which may be divulged to Contractor by
any source in the course of the performance of the Services, and which is not already in
the public domain, except when specifically cleared by the City, in writing, for release.
The terms of this Paragraph 6 shall be continuing covenants which survive the
termination of this Agreement.
7. Employees
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Contractor shall be solely responsible for the payment of compensation and for all state
and federal taxes, including, but not limited to employment taxes, workers' compensation
IIS and any similar tax associated with employment of Contractor's personnel. Contractor
shall take appropriate measures to insure that its employees who perform the Services are
competent to do so and that they comply with Paragraph Six.
8. Termination
Services under this Agreement shall terminate upon the earlier of:
(a) The completion by Contractor of the last of Contractor's services requested in
writing by the City hereunder; or
(b) The giving by the City to Contractor of written notice to the address set forth in
Paragraph 14 hereof that this Agreement is terminated.
Notice pursuant to subparagraph (b) of this paragraph shall be deemed given on the
earlier of the date of personal delivery or 48 hours after deposit of such notice, addressed
as set forth in Paragraph 14 hereof, in the first class United States mail, postage
prepaid. If this Agreement is terminated pursuant to subparagraph (b) of this Paragraph,
Contractor will promptly invoice and the City shall, within 30 days of receipt thereof,
pay for any services performed and expenses incurred up to and including the date
notification of termination of this Agreement was given; provided however, that such
amounts shall be payable only for tasks completed to the satisfaction of the City.
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9. Complete Agreement, Amendments, and Waivers
This Agreement constitutes the entire agreement between the parties and supersedes all
oral negotiations and prior writings in respect of the subject matter hereof. This
agreement may be amended, modified or varied only by an instrument in writing signed
by both parties. No waiver of any provision hereof shall be effective unless in writing
signed by the party to be charged therewith.
10. Conformity With Laws and Safety
a) Contractor shall observe and comply with all applicable laws, ordinances, codes
and regulations of governmental agencies, including federal, state, municipal, and
local governing bodies, having jurisdiction over the performance of the Services
or any part thereof, including, without limitation, all provisions of the
Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970 and all amendments thereto, Equal
Opportunity and other related federal requirements, and all applicable federal,
state, municipal, and local safety and environmental regulations. All work
performed by Contractor must be in accordance with these laws, ordinances,
codes and regulations.
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b) Contractor shall, while on or about the City premises, enforce such safety and
fire precautions as the City may prescribe for the protection of the City and other
personnel and property.
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11. Insurance
Contractor shall provide and maintain in full force and effect during the term of this
Agreement:
a) Workers' compensation insurance in accordance with the Workers' Compensation
Law of the State of California; and
b) Comprehensive general liability insurance (including automobile liability
insurance covering owned, non-owned and hired automobile equipment) in the
amount of at least$1,000,000 to cover any claims or damages for acts committed
'! by Contractor or Contractor's employees or agents during the performance of the
Services.
�! 12. Indemnity
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{! Contractor shall indemnify and hold harmless the City, its officers and employees from
f and against any and all liability, loss, injury, death or damage to persons or property
'.! caused by Contractor's own or its employees' or agents' or subcontractors' negligent or
1 wrongful acts or omissions in connection with the performance of any Services.
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1 13. Assignment
Neither this Agreement nor any duties or obligations hereunder shall be assignable by
Contractor without the written consent of the City. Except for the prohibitions on assignment
!; contained in the preceding sentence, this Agreement shall be binding upon and inure to the
benefit of the heirs, successors or assigns of the parties hereto.
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14. Notice
Notice shall be given to the parties at the addresses set forth below:
City: Tom Graves
Electric Department
City of Redding
760 Parkview Avenue
Redding, California 96001-3396
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Contractor: Economic Sciences Corporation
2120 University Avenue, Suite 600
Berkeley, California 94704
Attn: B. F. Roberts
If this Agreement meets with your approval, please sign and return one original of this letter.
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ECONOMIC SCIENCES CORPORATION
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r B. F. Roberts
President
Agreed to this day of 1992.
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'i CITY OF REDDING
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Title
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EXHIBIT A
Proposal to Provide Consulting Services
in Support of the City of Redding's
Participation in the CEC ER94 Proceedings
Offered Jointly
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Economic Sciences Corporation
Henwood Energy Services, Inc.
August 4, 1992
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ER94 Consulting Services
CONTENTS
I Objective
II Scope
Task 1 -- Preliminary ER94 Activities
Demand
Task 2.1 -- Initial Filings
Task 2.2 -- Data Requirements
Task 2.X -- Demand Modeling and Forecast Development
Task 2.5 -- Preparation of Demand Forms
Task 6, Phase 1 -- Demand Documentation and Support
Task 7, Phase 1 -- Demand CEC Liaison and Coordination
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Supply
Task 3.1 -- Data Requirements
Task 3.2 -- Production Costing Analysis
Task 3.3 -- Conservation Impact Analysis
Task 3.4 -- Demand Side Management,Assessment
j Task 3.5 -- Financial Analysis Model
Task 4 -- Transmission Forms
II Task 5 -- Filing of ER94 Forms
j Task 6, Phase II -- Supply Documentation and Support
Task 7, Phase II -- Supply CEC Liaison and Coordination
III Schedule
IV Project Staff
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V Fee Schedules
VI Estimated Costs
VII Consultant Qualifications
Economic Sciences Corporation
Henwood Energy Services, Inc.
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ER94 CONSULTING SERVICES
/ Objective
The objective of this project is to perform all consulting services needed to assist the City in
preparing its ER94 demand forecast and supply plan consistent with the City's own assessment
of need and long-range planning goals, and to represent the City in guiding the demand forecast
and supply plan through the ER94 proceedings, resulting in adoption by the CEC.
// Scope
The scope of this proposal includes all tasks identified in the City's request for proposal.
i Discussion of each task follows.
Task 1 -- Preliminary ER94 Activities
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a) Forms and Instructions
j� Economic Sciences Corporation (ESC) and Henwood Energy Services, Inc. (HESI) will
i monitor the development of forms and instructions. Representatives of ESC and/or HESI
will review documents and participate in workshops and hearings where appropriate.
Issues of potential concern to the City will be brought to the City's attention by ESC.
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b) Review of ER92 Methodology
Recommended changes to the City's ER92 methodology will be discussed by task in the
j sections that follow.
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Demand
Task 2.1 -- Initial Filines
For ER92, the CEC required an early filing of historical conservation and DSM impacts. This
appears to have been a relatively redundant activity since it was near the filing date for the
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complete ER92 document. ESC will encourage the CEC to drop the early filing requirement
for Redding during ER94. However, ESC will update and file the appropriate initial filing data
if required.
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Task 2.2 -- Data Requirements
ESC will supply all historical and forecast data required to develop the City's energy and peak
load forecast, that is not supplied by the City. ESC will supply local weather data, employment,
I� personal income, per capital personal income, price indices, natural gas prices, and other
variables as may be additionally required due to demand forecast model enhancements.
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Task 2.3 -- Econometric Model SMification and Demand Forecast
See Task 2.X below.
Task 2.4 -- End-use Forecast Assessment
See Task 2.X below.
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Task 2.X -- Demand Modeling and Forecast Development
This task combines RFP Tasks 2.3 (Econometric Model Specification and Demand Forecast),
2.4 (End-Use Forecast Assessment), 3.3 (Conservation Impact Estimation), and 3.4 (Demand
i� Side Assessment). This combination of tasks reflects ESC's proposal to integrate the analytic
'r and modeling activities referred to in these RFP tasks.
a) Background
For ER92, consistent with the City's plan to ultimately develop models with end-use
detail, the City's econometric demand model was refined and expanded to include
equations for the number of customers and energy use per customer by customer class,
and system peak demand. These developments substantially improved the analytic
linkages between class electricity sales (and system peak demand) and income, electricity
price, gas price and weather, the primary factors that affect customer energy use. The
econometric model was used to develop the City's initial ER92 demand forecast (without
conservation or DSM impacts).
The ER92 model development activity did not further disaggregate class energy sales and
system peak demand to the level of end-use that would be required to explain and
forecast the implications of end-use specific conservation and DSM programs.
To satisfy the CEC's requirement of including conservation and DSM impacts in the
City's ER92 demand forecasts, the initial forecast (from the City's econometric model)
was adjusted using: conservation impact estimates from NCPA's end-use model, and
DSM impact estimates from the City's DSM model. Since the NCPA conservation
'! adjustments were developed in annual frequency, it was necessary to spread them to
monthly frequency to augment Redding's monthly demand forecasting model. The DSM
adjustments were developed in monthly frequency. This procedure of combining the
output of three independent models to develop a demand forecast overlooks potential
problems of interdependency of the impacts of conservation and DSM measures and
price, weather, and economic activity. However, the procedure was accepted by the
CEC for ER92 in lieu of an integrated end-use analysis.
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For ER94, ESC strongly recommends that the City develop an integrated end-use model
for the residential and commercial sectors. This development is essential for the City's
effective participation in the ER94 process and for the City's planning of its DSM
! programs. The alternative of simply updating the ER92 econometric model for ER94
would most likely result in testimony and rebuttal costs that would exceed the
development costs of the end-use model. Further, this alternative would not address the
City's need for analytic tools to support the development of DSM programs. However,
this alternative is offered as option D2 as shown in section VI (Estimated Costs) below.
b) End-use Model Development
For integration into Redding's monthly Demand/Supply Convergence System, the end-use
It model should also be developed in monthly frequency. This essentially rules out the
simple adaptation of the CEC's (and other annual) end-use models. However, the CEC
'i annual model and others will be reviewed for useful concepts and features to be
incorporated in the Redding end-use model.
ESC's proposal for end-use model development is to:
'j 1. Utilize Redding's time-series customer database (which is currently being
developed to support the Weather Normalized Rate Model) and the City's 1988
and 1990 customer survey, in performing an econometric conditional demand
study to estimate monthly UEC's as a function of:
- electricity and natural gas rates
- weather
- economic activity
- conservation standards
- DSM measures
2. Utilize Redding's 1988 and 1990 customer survey saturation data, combined with
PG&E survey saturation data for the surrounding area (to gain sufficient
observations), to estimate logistic saturation curves for the projection of saturation
'! rates and appliance stocks.
3. Combine the UEC equations and saturation curves into the core of an integrated
residential and commercial end-use energy model tailored for the City of
Redding.
u 4. Use customer load profiles from Redding's residential and commercial time of use
meter sample, and borrowed end-use load profiles (CEC, SMUD, PG&E, or
other utilities) to also develop an initial Redding residential and commercial end-
use load model. This model will involve substantial approximations but is
essential for the development of the City's DSM programs.
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c) Update the City's Equations for Other Sectors
Redding's time-series customer database may provide insights for disaggregrations within
'j these customer classes that would yield improved equations.
d) System Peak Load
Update the system peak load equation to incorporate the residential and commercial load
model development described in paragraph b4. above. The key structural change needed
�I for the equation is a rate response to time of use rate incentives which will be studied as
part of the ongoing Weather Normalized Rate Model Project. This response is key to
analyzing DSM impacts associated with time of use rates.
e) Integration with the Redding Demand/Supply Convergence System
'I The Redding residential and commercial end-use energy and demand models will be
incorporated in the Demand/Supply Convergence System in place of residential and
commercial sectors of the ER92 econometric model, the NCPA forecast adjustment, and
the DSM model. This essentially merges the facilities of the three models into one and
will yield more consistent and defensible impact estimates and forecasts. The integrated
system will retain the ER92 econometric model linkages of energy sales to price,
weather, and economic activity, while providing disaggregated end-use detail for analysis
of conservation and DSM programs. System operation for forecasting and impact
analysis will also be simplified. The programming associated with this integration will
be coordinated with HESI to assure compatible formats for data transfer between the
u demand module and other programs.
f) Forecast Generation
Subject to the City's review and approval, FSC will generate the City's ER94 energy and
peak demand forecast. The forecast will be generated using CEC information concerning
energy conservation standards and programs; the City's population forecast, rate
schedules, and DSM programs; ESC projections of economic activity; and various City,
CEC, or ESC assumptions. The forecast will be decomposed to specifically break out
the impacts of conservation and DSM programs as required for CEC filings.
f Task 2.5 -- Preparation of ER94 Demand Forms
ESC will prepare all ER94 demand forms required by the CEC. This will include the required
data tables as well as an executive summary, charts and graphs, and descriptions of Redding's
forecasting models and forecasting procedures. If ER94 procedures are similar to ER92
procedures, the demand forms will be combined with the supply and transmission forms and
filed with the CEC in a single document (see Task 5 below).
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Task 6. Phase 1 -- Demand Documentation and Support
Demand model logic documentation will be presented in the ER94 filing. ESC will also provide
the City with documentation of the procedures for updating and estimating the demand equations
and of the coding used for generating forecasts. ESC will provide training and support in
updating and use of the model as is reasonably required by the Electric Department Staff.
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Task 7 Phase 1 -- Demand CEC Liaison and Coordination
ESC will perform all liaison functions related to demand (including conservation and DSM) with
1 the support of HESI if required. ESC will maintain close communication with the CEC Staff
and the Redding Electric Department Staff. In addition, ESC will prepare testimony/rebuttal and
participate in workshops and hearings as required.
Two sets of testimony/rebuttal can be expected from the ER92 experience. First, the CEC Staff
will be required to prepare a critique of Redding's demand forecasts and the models used to
develop the forecast. Some rebuttal will most likely be required. This activity should occur
around August-September 1993. The extent of rebuttal required can probably be reduced with
an informal model presentation to Staff prior to the expected June 1993 filing.
Second, the CEC Staff will be required to prepare a critique of the conservation and DSM
impacts embodied in the Redding demand forecast. This is an area of vulnerability for Redding
and rebuttal will undoubtedly be required. The use of the end-use model should satisfy Staff
concerns regarding technical viability of the City's impact estimation process. However, Staff
will probably argue for a greater effort in implementing DSM programs. The Staff DSM review
should take place around October-November 1993. In anticipation, the City should proceed in
defining and developing its DSM programs no later than January 1993 for incorporation in the
demand forecast.
Supply
HESI will perform the supply planning work required by the City's RFP Tasks 3.1, 3.2, 3.5,
and 3.6. HESI will consult with ESC during the performance of Task 3.3--Conservation Impact
Estimation--and Task 3.4--DSM Assessment Regarding Issues that Affect Supply Planning
Activities.
During the course of performing this work, HESI will also provide additional value to the City:
1) HESI will work closely with the City staff and ESC to assure the integration of electronic
data transfer throughout the modeling system. This work will be necessary due to the
substantial enhancements that are being proposed for the demand forecasting/rate model.
HESI will be responsible for all required modifications to ARFIN and for specifying
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proper formats for output from the demand/rate model. HESI's detailed knowledge of
the City's models (LOADFARM, PROSYM, and ARFIN) will greatly facilitate
successfully integrating data transfers.
2) To the extent not already accomplished, HESI will place all major functions in the
ARFIN model under macro control. This step will build on current work planned for
the ARFIN model regarding clean-uP� documentation and enhancement of the existing
SETRATES macro. This step will facilitate the performance of the ER94 work and other
work performed using ARFIN.
3) During the course of performing this assignment and in addition to the provisions of Task
6, HESI offers to train a staff person of Redding's selection in the use of the City's
production cost model and the ARFIN model. This training will be conducted by the
staff person participating in the project at HESI's offices.
Task 3.1 -- Data Requirements
Henwood Energy agrees to meet the data requirements set forth for this task in the City's RFP.
Consistent data will be used in the demand forecast and the supply analysis. In particular, HESI
and ESC propose that the "master" inflation and fuel escalation data be contained in the
demand/rate model and that this model be enhanced to provide a PROSYM data fragment
containing inflation and fuel pricing for use in production costing analysis.
HESI also will develop reasonable estimates of generic resource costs. The source and
procedure for developing these estimates will be discussed with the City staff prior to
undertaking the work.
Task 3.2 -- Production Costing Analysis
HESI will assist the City in defining scenarios for testing in the production cost model and then
in the overall integrated modeling system. As input to development of the scenarios, HESI and
ESC will provide the City with information regarding the procedures expected to be utilized by
the CEC in the "integrated need assessment" phase of the ER process. HESI agrees, that to the
extent reasonably practical, it will perform analysis consistent with these expected procedures.
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Task 3.3 -- Conservation Impact Analysis
ESC will perform the conservation impact analysis as an integral part of developing the demand
forecast under Task 2.X.f) above.
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I� Task 3 4 -- Demand Side Management Assessment
ESC will perform DSM assessment as an integral part of developing the demand forecast under
Task 2.X.0 above. To incorporate DSM impacts in the forecast, quantitative characterization
of the City's planned DSM programs will be required. This information should be available to
ESC by January 1993.
!� On the date of this proposal, the City's DSM coordinator position is vacant. In the event that
the position remains unfilled on November 1, 1992, and the City does not have other
j arrangements for completing the design of its DSM programs, ESC will be prepared to complete
the task as required for the ER94 process as an additional cost activity. ESC will review the,,,,,-
DSM
he,,,:DSM programs of other utilities and select measures that offer promise for improving the City's
load factor. ESC will examine the City's customer data to estimate penetration curves and
calculate cost effectiveness from both the customer's and the City's perspective. The additional
work is offered under option Dl, section VI--Estimated Costs.
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Task 3.5 -- Financial Model
jHESI will utilize and, with the City's approval, modify the ARFIN model as required to perform
?� the iterative supply/demand modeling required for each scenario examined in the course of
developing the supply plan. The existing reporting capability of the ARFIN model will be
enhanced to provide data output consistent with the CFM requirements for, or to directly
produce, supply plan forms R-12, R-13, R-16, and R-19M.
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Task.3.6 -- Preparation of ER94 Supply Forms
li HESI agrees to prepare these forms as required by the CEC. HESI will coordinate the timing,
content, and format of this work with ESC.
� Task 4 --
Transmission Firms
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HESI agrees to prepare these forms as required by the CEC. All data required for these forms
will be provided by the City. HESI will coordinate the timing, content, and format of this work
with ESC.
'I Task 5 -- Filing of ER94 Forms
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j ESC will organize all demand, supply, and transmission forms along with an executive
summary, charts, graphs, and descriptive narrative into an ER94 forecast/plan document to be
i filed with the CEC. All materials will be made available to the City for review prior to CEC
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filing dates. On the City's directive, ESC will produce 135 copies of the document, file the
necessary number with the CEC, and send copies to the ER94 service list as required.
Task 6, Phase II -- Supply Documentation and Support
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At the completion of the supply planning activities, HESI will provide to the City the complete
set of spreadsheet models and the associated production simulation data sets that were used to
develop the ER94 filing. A basic write-up of the functioning of the models will be provided.
The models will entail, at a minimum, the following:
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1) ARFIN as modified
2) A resource planning spreadsheet that calculates required resources
3) LOADFARM control file and base load file
4) PROSYM control file, data file(s), and load file
ii HESI will provide an on-site training session in the use of the spreadsheet models to facilitate
their use by Redding.
Task 7, Phase II -- Supply CEC Liaison and Coordination
'! ESC will continue to provide front line liaison and coordination throughout the ER94 process.
Under the coordination of ESC, HESI will make its personnel and data available to support its
work. If required, HESI will develop and, at the City's request, provide testimony as part of
this task.
j Both HESI and ESC anticipate requests from the CEC Staff for additional work during the
course of the "integrated assessment of need" portion of the ER process. The extent, effort, and
desirability of performing this work is unknown at this time.
In the pricing portion of this proposal (section VI-Estimated Costs), an option is provided for
V the City's consideration. In our base bid, HESI will not be required to provide additional supply
plan runs over those used to complete the supply forms. In this case, if the City determines that
performing additional work is desirable, there would have to be a contract augmentation.
In our optional bid (S 1), HESI assumes the risk of being able to satisfy the CEC Staff's requests.
ji HESI will assume this risk with the proviso that the CEC's request will not be unreasonably
burdensome.
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N Schedule
ESC and HESI are prepared to begin services in connection with this proposal by August 20,
1992 and continue through the completion of the ER94 process. ESC and HESI will be prepared
to meet the CEC's ER94 schedule as it evolves.
Judging from the CEC's ER92 schedule, it is reasonable to assume that the ER94 filing date will
be in June 1993. This implies that the supply plan should be complete in April 1993 and the
demand forecast should be finalized by February 1993. To meet these dates, it would be
desirable to have all modeling and programming activities completed in December 1992.
Therefore, the demand modeling tasks should be started by September.
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Economic Sciences Cor oration
The key ESC personnel assigned to the ER94 support project are: Dr. Bill Roberts, Ms. Helen
Chin, and Mr. Stuart Taylor. Dr. Roberts will function as overall project manager. Ms. Chin
will take primary responsibility for model development and forecasting. Mr. Taylor will take
primary responsibility for all liaison activities, including forecast/plan filing and preparation of
testimony and rebuttal. All three ESC personnel have prior experience in working with Redding
data and the Redding Electric Department Staff through their involvement in developing and
defending Redding's ER92 energy and load forecasting model and forecasts before the CEC.
I� Henwood Energy Services, Inc.
Henwood Energy proposes to utilize personnel who are experienced regarding the City's
planning process and with the analytical tools employed by the City.
Technical Manager: James D. Joy will act as HESI's technical manager for this project. Mr.
Joy is very familiar with Redding's resource planning process and with the information required
by the California Energy Commission.
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ij Staff Support: Mr. Joy will be supported by Kevin Harris and by Jason Gu. Mr. Harris is an
experienced utility resource planner familiar with the Northern California utility market. Mr.
Harris is also an experienced user of the production cost model utilized by the City. Mr. Gu
'.� will also provide staff support on this project. Mr. Gu has performed staff support services for
j HESI's principal consultants on a number of projects over the last year. Mr. Gu is also
j experienced in the use of the production cost model utilized by the City.
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Review Manager: Mr. Henwood will act as Henwood Energy's review manager for this project.
The review manager performs quality control functions and oversight functions. The review
manager also provides continuity in the performance of the project in the event other staff
;i personnel are not available.
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ESC and HESI corporate and personnel qualification descriptions are presented in section VII
of this proposal.
{ V Fee Schedules
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The fee schedules for ESC and HESI follow.
In the event that the City of Redding elects to contract with ESC as the prime contractor and
HESI as the subcontractor, HESI charges will be passed through to the City without surcharge.
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ECONOMIC SCIENCES CORPORA TION
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Fee Schedule
The following rates are fixed for the duration of the CEC ER94 Project.
Consultant All-in Hourly Rate
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Roberts $125
Chin $100
Taylor $ 75
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No additional G&A charges will be billed. Travel and miscellaneous expenses will be passed
through at cost.
ESC's expected average hourly billing rate for the CEC ER94 Project is $91.
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Ii HENWOOD ENERGY SERVICES, INC.
FEE SCHEDULE
I� Effective Calendar Year 1992
1. Professional Services
The fees for the professional services, including normal overhead costs l, are:
Principal Consultants
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1.1 Mr. Mark Henwood, RMO
President........................
.....................................................................$135 per hour
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VicePresident...................................................................................$120 per hour
1 1.3 Dr. Lon House
Engineering Economics ........$110 per hour
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1.4 Mr. David Magaw, Esq.
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Utility Power Contracting ......................................$110 per hour
I)
Senior Consultants
1.5 Mr. Thomas Johnson, P.E.
itCivil Engineer....................................................................................$ 85 per hour
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1.6 Mr. Kevin Woodruff, MBA
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Economics..........................................................................................$ 80 per hour
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Staff Consultants
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1.7 Mr. Douglas Joy
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i Software/Analytical Engineer........................................................$ 77.50 per hour
it 1.8 Mr. Donald Moss
CivilEngineer....................................................................................$ 62.50 per hour
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1. These costs include basic secretarial support,job administration,rents, and other corporate overhead
costs.
Rates921,Page 1
July 29,1992
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j� Assistant Consultants
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1.9 Mr. Jason Gu
Mechanical Engineer .......................................................................$ 50 per hour
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1.10 Mr. Kevin Harris
Utility Planning Engineer................................................................ 65 per hour
Administrative/Research
1.11 Ms. Carol Killelea
Administrative Assistant..................................................................$ 40 per hour
1.12 Ms. Jimmie Willis
J Administrative Assistant..................................................................$ 35 per hour
Other Staff Members
1.13 Other Staff..........................................................................................HESI Standard
Ratesi
2. Support Service Charges
In addition to payment for professional services, all reasonable and necessary expenses
incurred in connection with the performance of professional services will be billed at cost
plus 10%. Such expenses included, but are not limited to outside reproduction costs, art-
work, airline travel, meals, lodging, postage, freight, telephone, and travel related expenses.
Facsimile charges are $2 per outgoing page, no charge for receiving. Internal copying is
charge at $0.10 per page. Mileage is charged at the maximum rate permitted by the Inter-
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nal Revenue Service.
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3. Materials Equipment, Subcontractors
Charges for the purchase of job parts and materials, specialized equipment rental or
purchase, and tool rental or replacement purchase shall be charged at cost plus 15%.
Expenditures for hiring of sub-consultants or subcontractors shall be charged at cost plus
15%.
To the extent California sales, use, or district taxes apply, such taxes shall be charged.
4. Fee Schedule Revision
This schedule is effective commencing January 1, 1992, and may be superseded by a revised
schedule January 1, 1993 or later.
1. Rates are based on salary and standard multipliers.
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Rates921,Page 2
July 29,1992
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Base Proposal
it The base proposal includes the development and use of the Redding residential and commercial
end-use model and one base supply plan. Multiple supply scenarios are not included.
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Base Proposal charges will not exceed $115,000.
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Option D 1
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Option D1 has the same scope as the base proposal, except that this option includes the design
!; of Redding's DSM programs for incremental labor charges up to $15,000.
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Option D1 charges will not exceed $130,000.
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�) Option D2
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Option D2 has the same scope as the base proposal, except that this option includes updating and
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using the ER94 econometric model instead of developing the end-use demand model. Since
CEC reaction to this approach is unpredictable, ESC's budget for demand related
testimony/rebuttal is limited to 132 person hours. Testimony/rebuttal hours in excess of 132 will
require budget augmentation at $125 per hour plus expenses.
Option D2 charges will not exceed $105,000.
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Option S1
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Option S 1 has the same scope as the base proposal except that HESI offers to perform all
j scenarios that might be required during the ER94 process, for the incremental charge of
$25,000.
Option S1 charges will not exceed $140,000.
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I� V11 Consultant Qualifications
Bill F. Roberts, Ph.D., President and Chief Economist
Dr. Roberts personally directs ESC's consulting projects and computer software development.
In his 22 years of academic and business experience, he has made innovative contributions
to the methodology of modeling regional economics, the demand for energy and
telecommunications services, and utility operations. He has also pioneered computer
modeling and model simulation software systems. He has often provided expert testimony
before regulatory, judicial, and legislative proceedings.
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Dr. Roberts holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota. Prior to
founding ESC, he was on the faculty of the University of California at Berkeley.
Helen Chin, Vice President and Principal Consultant
Ms. Chin, an ESC employee since 1977, has extensive experience in developing regional
economic forecasting models, energy and peak load models, financial forecasting models, and
integrated strategic planning systems for electric and gas utilities. Ms. Chin is ESC's expert
on weather normalization procedures and statistical techniques.
Ms. Chin holds an M.A. in Economics from San Francisco State University. Prior to joining
ESC, she served as an Economic Analyst for the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco
and for Pacific Gas & Electric Company.
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Stuart Taylor, Director, Utility Information Services, and Senior Consultant
Mr. Taylor, an ESC employee since 1989, has substantial experience in the development of
large scale utility databases, in utility quantitative modeling, and in programming model
management and simulation software. Mr. Taylor has gained special knowledge on Redding
electricity data through his activities as Redding's ER92 liaison to the CEC.
Mr. Taylor holds a B.A. in Economics from San Diego State University. Prior to joining
ESC, he served as an international trade analyst with Pacific Rim Interface Member
I� Enterprises, Inc.
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ECONOMIC SCIENCES CORPORATION
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Economic Sciences Corporation (ESC) provides management consulting services, planning
support software, customized applications, and database services to electric,gas, and telecom-
munications utilities and financial institutions. Since 1973,ESC has designed and successfully I
implemented systems covering virtually all facets of business analysis, forecasting, and plan-
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ning. ESC's innovative and cost-effective performance has resulted in long-term client
relationships with the largest U.S. companies in the industry.
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II Utility Consulting Services
ESC's utility consulting services focus on the design, implementation, and use of large
'! databases, models, and advanced econometric techniques to aid utility management in
developing and testing corporate strategies. ESC's consultants have the academic credentials
and extensive utility experience to ensure that innovative and practical approaches will be
r taken to client problems. Utilizing high-level modeling and programming languages, ESC's
'f consultants deliver completed systems and analytic results to utility management quickly and
cost-effectively.
ESC's consulting services have covered virtually all facets of utility strategy development:
it Comparative Analysis/Best Practices Modeling
Models,analyses,and forecasts of detailed financial and operational accounts measuring a
p utility's operational performance against the industry standard.
Economic/Demographic Utility Environment
Detailed area models,analyses,and forecasts of key variables that affect the utilities'cus-
tomer base.
Demand
Models,analyses,and forecasts of utility sales and load,combining econometric and end-use I
j methodology;conservation and load management assessment;demand elasticity estimation.
Costs
Models and analysis of system replacement,capacity expansion,system dispatch,and operat-
ing and maintenance costs.
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Financial
Complete utility financial models and reporting systems.
li Rates
Market responsive rate design by market segment for utilities facing growing competition.
f Economic Sciences Corporation
?120 Urwers,t.v z1venue 3erkelev. Ca.94 7r4
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NMF 'Raw
Telecommunications
As a contractor to AT&T and other telecommunications companies,ESC has performed both
as a technical consultant and as an advisor to telephone company personnel. ESC has also
prepared expert witness testimony for regulatory proceedings, briefed telephone company
regulatory witnesses,and appeared before regulatory commissions on behalf of the companies.
The following is a listing of projects completed by ESC:
Message Toll Modeling
'? Price Elasticity Estimation
I Rate Structuring Analysis
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8 Rate of Return Analysis in Defense of Rate Requests
iAdvertising Impact and Analysis
Point-to-Point Traffic Modeling
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li Market Share Analysis
Market Segmentation Analysis and Forecasting
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Planning Support Software (EMS)
i' ESC developed EMS-the Planning Support System-to complement ESC's consulting services
and to enhance the productivity of consultants.
EMS is a fourth-generation application development language which facilitates development
and efficient integration of virtually all forecasting, analysis, planning and econometric ap-
plications. EMS has integrated capabilities for: data management, query, retrieval, and
,i analysis; statistical analysis; modeling, model simulation, and model management; and infor-
mation display.
!� EMS database/analytic/modeling/simulation/reporting capabilities are unsurpassed by any
product currently available. EMS is designed to handle the largest,most complex tasks in the
simplest possible manner. These integrated capabilities facilitate the integration of diverse
applications into coherent, consistent systems required for strategic and financial planning in
today's competitive environment.
;j ESC provides custom programming of specialized client applications in database manage-
ment, database query, reporting, and statistical analysis. Utilizing the advanced application
development facilities of EMS, ESC implements turn-key software systems for clients quickly
and cost-effectively.
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Database Services
California Database
'I The California Database contains extensive economic information on the State of California,
Standard Consolidated Statistical Areas, Metropolitan Statistical Areas, counties, and cities.
The more than 60,000 time series within the Database contain multiple measures of economic
it activity on the following subjects:
Building and Real Estate
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Population
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Finance
Income, Earnings,Hours
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II Consumer Prices
Trade
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Transportation
Agriculture and Resources
Miscellaneous
Data coverage begins as far back as 1920 for some data series and goes up to the present. As
new measures of economic activity or redefined historical data series become available, these
series are incorporated into the Database. The Database is updated on a daily basis as
j information becomes available.
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Utility Query, Analysis and Reporting System (UQAR)
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UQAR is a compilation of over 300,000 time series data from the major electric and gas utilities
i
and fuel suppliers. Data sources include:
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Annual FERC Form 1 (180 electric utilities)
II Annual FERC Form 2 (60 gas utilities)
Monthly EIA Form 826- from Electric,Sales,and Revenue reports
Monthly EIA Form 423-from Cost and Quality of Fuel reports
!j Financial statements(balance sheet,income and retained earnings,cash flows)and operations
data (operations and maintenance expense, plant in service, generating plant statistics, etc.)
are integral to the system, with supporting schedules and data to allow analysis at the most
!� disagregated levels.
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The database is structured to allow dynamic modification to keep pace with industry needs,
and to allow users easy front-end access to minimize usage costs.
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HENWOOD ENERGY SERVICES, INC.
COMPANY QUALIFICATIONS AND SERVICES OFFERED
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{ Henwood Energy Services, Inc. is a well established economic and engineering consulting
I firm serving the energy and electric utilities industries. The firm's principals and senior
consultants have many years of experience in these industries and have performed over 300
'i project assignments since the establishment of the firm in 1985. Henwood Energy Services,
Inc.'s 20+ person staff consists of economists, financial analysts, civil, electrical,
mechanical and systems engineers, and power plant operators. Located in Sacramento
California, the professional staff is supported by an up-to-date computer network employing
the latest in spreadsheet, word processing, computer aided drafting, engineering application
packages, and custom designed software tailored to the problems of the energy industry.
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SERVICES OFFERED
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Henwood Energy provides a variety of services to the energy and utility industry. Some of
these services include:
Utility Analytics Regulatory Representation
• Market evaluations • Technical investigations and expert witness
• Power contract development, negotiation, and testimony
review • Permit compliance review
• Power resource acquisitions • Utility Commission testimony on rate matters
Competitive bidding Programs
• Avoided Cost Projections Economic and Financial Analysis
• Rate studies
Fuel Procurement • Damage assessments
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• Gas Cost Forecasts • Cost allocations
! • Gas transportation contracts • Project valuations
it Gas commodity purchasing
• Gas purchasing strategies
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CLIENTS SERVED
Henwood Energy has served clients from all sectors of the energy industry. A sample
selection of clients served includes:
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Publicly Owned Utilities Private Power Producers
• Bonneville Power Administration • Mission Energy
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• Eugene Water and Electric Board • Unocal Corporation
I; • Cajun Rural Electric Coop • Rohr Industries
j� • Sierra Pacific Industries
Investor Owned Utilities
San Diego Gas and Electric Governmental Agencies
• Public Service Company of Colorado • California Public Utilities Commission
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MARK HENWOOD
BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION
Mr. Henwood received a B.S. in Electrical Engineering and an M.S. in Mechanical
Engineering from the University of California at Davis.
Mr. Henwood is currently President of Henwood Energy Services,
Inc. of Sacramen-
to, California. Mr. Henwood's experience covers (1) expert witness testimony before
regulatory commissions, (2) management of the development of power generation stations,
(3) preparation of numerous permit applications before the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission and other agencies and (4) preparation of economic analyses of power
projects, utility tariffs, and avoided cost rates, as well as a variety of other assignments
involving energy projects.
Mr. Henwood has also been involved in the development of advanced analytical
tools for use in production costing analysis and for analyzing energy production from
hydroelectric facilities. Under Mr. Henwood's direction the PROSYM chronological
production simulation model was developed. This model is used by utilities, consulting
firms, and government agencies..
Clients served by Mr. Henwood include Fortune 500 companies, small development
companies, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Rural Electric Cooperative
Association, Southern California Edison Company, the Northern California Power Agency,
the Western Area Power Administration, the California Public Utilities Commission and
others. Mr. Henwood has also participated in negotiations, or negotiated contracts for sale
of power from numerous projects.
Mr. Mark Henwood has been involved in energy consulting since 1978 and in devel-
opment of PURPA qualifying generating plants since 1980.
Mr. Henwood served as a Director of the Independent Energy Producers Asso-
ciation from 1984 through 1990, and is a member of IEEE's Power Engineering Society and
Tau Beta Pi.
July 29,1992
JAMES DOUGLAS JOY
' BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION
Mr. James Douglas Joy received a B.S. in Systems and Control Engineering from
Case Western Reserve University
Mr. Joy is a Staff Engineer with primary responsibility for creating and operating
computer models of utilities and analyzing their results. During his tenure at HESI, he has
developed both long and short term projections of avoided costs for each of the California
investor-owned electric utilities using financial and production cost simulation models,
including projections supporting testimonies before the California Public Utilities Commis-
sion. He has written software which: forecasts utility rates based on their embedded and
production costs; calculates the expected cost of natural gas procurement and transporta-
tion strategies; and provides multi-attribute comparison and ranking of power supply and
demand management proposals, including consideration of social costs.
In collaboration with Mr. Henwood and Mr. Magaw, he has assisted .a Northern
California municipal utility in comparing the economic merits of five competing proposals
for turnkey generation projects or power supply contracts and in preparing the Engineer's
li Report supporting the financing for the successful proposal. Other investigations include a
II study of the cost structure and financial base for each of thirty New England area electric
utilities, analyses of the impact of cogeneration on industrial plant utility billings, forecasts
iiof transmission availability for potential third party power producers, and hydroelectric
,i production simulations.
Mr. Joy and is a member of Tau Beta Pi, the Engineering Honor Society.
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July 29,1992
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KEVIN HARRIS
BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION
Mr. Kevin M. Harris received a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from California State
University, Chico.
Mr. Harris is a Staff Engineer with primary responsibility for creating and operating
computer models of utilities and analyzing their results. During his tenure at HESI, he has
developed a relationship to verify projected hydro generation in northern California and
supported testimony before the California Public Utilities Commission on Pacific Gas and
Electric Company's Energy Cost Adjustment Clause.
During the five years Mr. Harris worked at the Western Area Power Administration he
preformed short term hydro operation studies to evaluate Western's ability to comply with
its present contracts in a six year of drought. Mr. Harris's other responsibilities involved
II supporting management in evaluating Western's capability in current contract negotiations.
Mr. Harris also preformed numerous studies involving operations and capacity expansion.
Mr. Harris has worked in the electric utility industry for seven years and is a member of
,i the American Society of Mechanical Engineers.
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JASON Y. GU
BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION
Mr. Jason Y. Gu received a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Beijing Light
Industry Institute, Beijing, China, and a M.S. in Mechanical Engineering from California
State University, Sacramento.
Mr. Gu is a Staff Engineer with primary responsibility for maintaining and operating
ii computer models of utilities and analyzing their results. During his tenure at HESI, he has
been using financial and production simulation models for avoided costs, production costs
and emission analysis. he is currently supporting testimony before the California Public
Utilities Commission on Pacific Gas and Electric Company's Energy Cost Adjustment
Clause.
Mr. Gu has assisted Henwood Energy's principal consultants in the preparation of
'I testimony before California Water Resources Control Board on capacity, production cost
and emissions impacts of proposed Department of Fish and Game temperature and stream
flow requirements on the Lower Yuba River. He also analyzed NOx emissions for San
!' Diego Gas and Electric Company, and participated in a utility reliability evaluation for
California Public Utilities Commission.
ij Mr. Gu holds an EIT certificate, and is a member of the American Society of
Il Mechanical Engineers. Mr. Gu is fluent in English, Mandarin, and Cantonese.
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